Oddsmakers shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception and then allow their most well-respected bettors to shape the line throughout the day. “We may have a smart guy bet $5K on a game and then a square bet $20K on the other side, but we’ll adjust towards the smart play.” “You can’t always assume that one sharp play is going to greatly outweigh one square play,” stated Cooley. In fact, many bettors that I have spoken with believe that one-sided money percentages are an excellent indicator of sharp money, but that’s simply not the case. There’s a common misconception that a large bet is always a sharp bet. You can also see that teams receiving at least 75% of spread tickets have received at least 75% of spread dollars more often than not. Once again, you can see the correlation between public tickets and public money is strengthened in heavily bet games. This season there have been 615 games in which one team received at least 75% of spread tickets including 255 that have been classified as heavily bet. The table below displays the money percentage for team’s receiving at least 75% of spread tickets. Although we’re dealing with a smaller sample size, I wanted to determine whether money percentages correlated with ticket percentages at this historically profitable threshold. Since 2005, teams receiving less than 25% of spread tickets have gone 1,528-1,432 ATS (51.6%) when the number of bets on the game is at least the daily average and 416-363 ATS (53.4%) when the number of bets is at least twice the daily average. Historically, the sweet spot for fading the public has come at the 75% threshold. Betting against the public is only an effective strategy in heavily bet games with extreme levels of one-sided public betting and limited sharp involvement. However, this doesn’t necessarily tell the entire story. It’s logical to see that the correlation between public tickets and public money is strengthened in heavily bet games (which I have defined as any game with more bets than the daily average), as public money has a greater impact in these marquee matchups. It may be anywhere from 65 to 75, depending on the season.” Although we have only been tracking money percentages for one season, those figures match up with historical rates according to Scott Cooley, a spokesman for. The tables below examine all games in which a team received the majority (at least 51%) of spread dollars.Īs you can see, the majority of spread tickets and spread dollars have been on the same team in roughly 70% of games this season. It’s always difficult to make broad generalizations based on a limited sample size, but I wanted to determine how often our ticket percentages matched up with our money percentages during the 2016-17 college basketball season. We have been tracking ticket percentages for over a decade, but we have a much smaller data sample for our money percentages. Since adding this information, there have been many questions about how to best utilize money percentages and whether there’s still value utilizing our ticket percentages. Last year we also added money percentages from one of the sharper offshore sportsbooks, which allows us to fully analyze all of the factors responsible for line movement. By including both sharp and square sportsbooks, our betting percentages accurately reflect which teams the public is backing across the marketplace. These betting trends reflect real bets placed by real bettors, as opposed to other websites that use “consensus” numbers. For anybody unfamiliar with Sports Insights, we track public betting percentages from seven major offshore sportsbooks: 5Dimes, BetDSI, BetUs, Carib, GTBets, SIA, and.
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